Case studies
Large Utility
Stochastic analysis of intermittency impact
Large Utility
Stochastic analysis of intermittency impact
We were engaged to analyse the evolution of price & load factor distributions in the UK power market as intermittent output rises to 2040.
Client Challenge
We worked with the client’s commercial & investment teams to analyse the impact of rising intermittency on price distributions and asset risk/return.
Our Solution
We used our stochastic power market modelling framework to analyse the evolution of price distributions, price duration curves & battery/engine operational profiles. Analysis was based on 500 correlated simulations of wind, solar & load profiles.
Result
Model results supported portfolio investment decisions and benchmarking of the client’s in-house modelling capability.
Sovereign Wealth Fund
LNG vs European gas market interaction
Sovereign Wealth Fund
LNG vs European gas market interaction
Our client has substantial portfolio exposure to LNG & European gas markets and engaged us to analyse market interactions.
Client Challenge
We were engaged to undertake a detailed analysis of the evolution of the interdependent supply & demand balances of the European gas & LNG markets.
Our Solution
We worked with the client to define a set of scenario input assumptions. We then used our integrated LNG/gas/power modelling framework to analyse evolution of LNG flows, European S&D balance & gas prices.
Result
Project results generated a set of key conclusions on price & volume dependencies that the client used to support portfolio investment decisions.
Private Equity Fund
NW European power market evolution
Private Equity Fund
NW European power market evolution
We were engaged to undertake a detailed analysis of the evolution of German, French, Benelux & UK power markets & policy frameworks.
Client Challenge
Our analysis focused on the supply & demand balance impact of rising volumes of renewables and the associated requirement for flexible capacity.
Our Solution
We used our pan-European stack modelling framework to analyse the interdependent evolution of capacity mixes, load, output & price distributions across markets. A key focus area was inflection points and boundary levels that trigger rapid changes in price/volume dynamics.
Result
Our work supported the client’s investment & portfolio diversification strategy across its thermal and low carbon power asset base.
Midstream Utility
Seasonal gas price spreads & volatility
Midstream Utility
Seasonal gas price spreads & volatility
We were engaged to analyse the evolution of the European gas supply flexibility balance, seasonal prices spreads & spot price volatility dynamics.
Client Challenge
Our client wanted a 3rd party view of market & price signal evolution to support key decisions on flexible gas asset investment & contracting strategy.
Our Solution
We worked with the client to build a set of scenarios consistent with in-house assumptions. We then ran these through our integrated European gas market modelling framework to analyse evolution of gas supply flexibility requirements and price signals.
Result
Our analysis was presented to executive & board level management and underpinned an internal review of portfolio strategy.
Infrastructure Fund
Evolution of regional LNG pricing dynamics
Infrastructure Fund
Evolution of regional LNG pricing dynamics
Our client was assessing substantial LNG supply chain investments and engaged us to analyse the evolution of Asian vs Atlantic price dynamics.
Client Challenge
Analysis focused on the evolution of JKM vs TTF vs Henry Hub price spreads & volatility and the impact of these on LNG supply chain value.
Our Solution
We used our global LNG supply & demand modelling framework to define regional market balances under different scenarios. We also developed a ‘regime’ based view of regional pricing dynamics (spreads & volatility) linked to market balance.
Result
Our analysis supported the assessment of LNG asset investments including regas capacity, flexible supply contracts and associated hedging strategies.
Private Equity Fund
Integrated gas & power market evolution
Private Equity Fund
Integrated gas & power market evolution
Our client was bidding on multiple portfolios of flexible power assets and needed detailed analysis of European gas & power market interdependencies.
Client Challenge
We were engaged to analyse the role of gas-fired power plants in setting marginal power prices as intermittency rose in the 2020s-30s.
Our Solution
We worked with the client’s investment team to analyse the interaction between gas & renewable asset output and its impact on prices, as well as gas supply flexibility requirements to support this. Analysis covered DE, FR, NL, BE, UK, Alpine & IT markets.
Result
We delivered several sets of analysis to the client’s investment committee to support asset investment transaction processes.