As oversupply in the LNG market eases and prices recover, there has been a sharp decline in LNG deliveries into NW Europe. The charts show the fall in UK & French LNG sendout volumes since May 2020. Regas terminal send out volumes in these two countries are an important barometer of the volumes of surplus cargoes that are being monetised at NW European hubs. Keep an eye on these terminals into winter as an indicator of the LNG market supply & demand balance.
Author: David Duncan
LNG portfolios: to hedge or not to hedge?
European EV market share rising fast
A study released this week by policy group Transport & Environment shows a tripling in EV share of sold vehicles across Europe in 2020. The forecast incorporates actual data to the end of Q2 2020 (bottom chart), with UK, Italy & Germany leading the charge. The EV share of European vehicle sales is forecast to rise from around 3% in 2019 to more than 15% in 2021 as shown in the top chart. The surge in EV sales is being driven by a tightening of EU average vehicle emissions standards, pushing supply side response from car manufacturers to accelerate EV model production & sales. This pace of EV growth has important implications for electricity demand growth and load shape.
Oil price crash in animation
French nukes, winter stress & flex asset value
David Duncan joins Timera as an Analyst
David Duncan joins Timera from RWE Supply & Trading bringing further practical industry experience to our analyst team. 5 things to know about David:
Summary: David started his career with RWE in 2017 and has worked across several commercial front office analyst roles. These have covered analysis of market drivers and the optimisation & hedging of portfolio exposures & flexibility.
RWE LNG desk: David has most recently been working as an analyst on RWE’s LNG trading desk. His focus here has been on hedging and optimisation of RWE’s LNG portfolio and associated cross commodity exposures.
RWE Grad Scheme: Prior to this, David went through the 2 years RWE Supply & Trading Grad Scheme. This included a rotation across 3 commercial teams: LNG Trading & Origination, Atlantic Coal and US Gas & Power.
University: David studied at the University of Warwick and has a BScMPhys Physics (Integrated Masters): First Class Honours.
Outside the office: David is a hockey player as well as an ardent Liverpool supporter.
Quantifying battery value
European LNG imports down in Q3
Last winter saw new records set for LNG imports, as surplus cargos continued to flow into European hubs. The Covid demand shock saw that continue into Q2, but imports have fallen since June. Three reasons have contributed: (i) shut in of US export volumes has eased the cargo surplus since Q2 (ii) spot Asian LNG demand has recovered into Q3 (iii) there have been some significant supply outages e.g. 8mtpa across Gorgon & Prelude in Australia. LNG import volumes will be a key barometer for European gas market pricing into winter.
