Covid-19 impact on gas forward curves

TTF and JKM front month prices have hit all time lows, given low demand expectations (Covid-19) & high stock levels.  Summer 2020 prices at TTF have dropped almost 40% since start of the year, JKM 35%, Henry Hub 15%.  The front of the TTF curve is bearing down on Henry Hub flagging US export shut ins into the summer. European storage is 54% full, providing a limited sink to absorb volumes across the summer. So far, there is no conclusive evidence of European supply cuts, although Q1 Russian volumes are well down vs 2019. We stick to our view that TTF forms a bottom across this summer before making a multi-year recovery.