Capacity Market Notice highlights lack of GB flex

A GB Capacity Market Notice (CMN) was issued at 2.33pm for delivery 7:00pm on Tuesday 22nd November 2022 due to a low system generation margin of 177MW. Available supply was reduced due to a combination of unexpected thermal and hydro outages (1.9GW total) and a sharp reduction in wind supply (12GW overnight fell to 3GW across the peak), with the interconnectors swinging ~4 GW day-on-day to ensure security of supply.

While the CMN was cancelled, peak demand only reached 38GW across the period, well short of the ~58GW assumed by National Grid across peak winter cold spells. As we move into the depths of Winter 22, we may expect to see an increase in CMNs with the market sending clear signals for additional flex capacity.